Caribbean to Confront Climate Extremes in 2024, According to CariCOF

The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) predicts that 2024 will bring a year of climate extremes in the Caribbean region. With a waning El Niño event in the Pacific and record-warm Tropical North Atlantic temperatures forecasted, the region is expected to experience intense heatwaves and an early start to a wet season. Shower intensity and frequency are likely to increase significantly, leading to a high potential for flooding, flash floods, and other associated hazards in most areas, except the ABC Islands. The unpredictable frequency of dry, dust-laden Saharan air incursions may also result in erratic shower activity, dry spells, and increased drought, heat, and wildfire risks.

CariCOF highlights that as of March 1, 2024, moderate to severe short-term drought conditions have already emerged in various Caribbean territories, including French Guiana, Grenada, Guyana, Martinique, Puerto Rico, Suriname, and Tobago. In addition, long-term drought has developed in southern Belize, northern Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, southern Puerto Rico, St Vincent, eastern and northern Suriname, as well as Trinidad and Tobago. The forecast indicates that by the end of May, long-term drought concerns continue to persist and may worsen in southern French Guiana, parts of Central Cuba, northern Guyana, and other regions in the Caribbean.

The potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts due to runoff during intense rainfall events is emphasized, particularly in mountainous areas and the Guianas. The climate conditions outlined by CariCOF suggest that the Caribbean region may face challenges related to drought, heatwaves, and wildfires, alongside the increased risk of heavy rainfall and flooding. The unpredictability of Saharan air incursions adds to the uncertainty surrounding shower patterns and the occurrence of dry spells, which could exacerbate drought conditions and intensify the impact of extreme weather events.

CariCOF underlines the importance of monitoring and preparing for the expected climate extremes in 2024, particularly in terms of mitigating the risks associated with flooding, drought, and other related hazards. The forum’s recommendations may include early warning systems, water conservation measures, land use planning strategies, and community preparedness initiatives to enhance resilience and reduce the potential impact of extreme weather events on Caribbean communities. By staying informed and actively addressing the climate challenges ahead, stakeholders in the region can better adapt and respond to the evolving climate conditions and their associated risks.

Overall, CariCOF’s assessment for the period of April to June 2024 underscores the need for proactive measures and collaborative efforts to address the forecasted climate extremes in the Caribbean region. By understanding the potential impacts of heatwaves, erratic shower patterns, drought, and flooding events, stakeholders can work together to implement adaptive strategies and strengthen resilience to withstand the challenges posed by the changing climate. Through ongoing monitoring, communication, and preparedness initiatives, the Caribbean community can better navigate the complexities of climate variability and build a more sustainable and secure future for all.