The AGC’s Threat to Colombia’s Path to Comprehensive Peace

The International Crisis Group published a report highlighting the growing influence of the Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AGC), the country’s largest drug trafficking group. With 9,000 members, the AGC is involved in drug trafficking, arms trafficking, illegal mining, migrant smuggling, and extortion along Colombia’s Caribbean coast. The report expressed concerns that the AGC’s expansion could disrupt the government’s peace processes with other criminal groups in the region.

President Gustavo Petro’s Total Peace initiative aims to negotiate peace with various criminal groups, including the ELN, EMC, Second Marquetalia, and now potentially the AGC. The report suggests that the AGC may be interested in participating in peace talks for reasons of legitimacy and judicial leniency. While lower-level fighters in the AGC may seek a way out of violence, mid-level commanders may continue to pursue criminal interests.

The AGC’s expansion strategy focuses on controlling strategic territories, such as the Pacific coast, mining areas in Bolívar, Antioquia, and Cesar, and Catatumbo in Norte de Santander. The group aims to dominate key economic activities, such as drug trafficking and mining, in these regions. Additionally, the AGC has maintained stable coca prices in its territory by leveraging consistent buyer relationships, transportation advantages, penetration of security forces, and significant capital reserves.

The AGC’s structure, which includes military, economic, and political branches, has contributed to its strength and resilience compared to other groups that emerged from the demobilization of the AUC in 2006. One key factor is the group’s rural focus, as it has strategically avoided urban areas to evade scrutiny and security operations. The AGC has also established strong relationships with landowners, who have supported the group during economic hardships.

Following the capture of Otoniel in 2021, the AGC has undergone a leadership change, with Chiquito Malo taking the reins and consolidating the group’s structure. By implementing a franchising model at the local level and maintaining control over key criminal economies, the AGC has managed to maintain its influence and business activities while attempting to reduce violence. The group’s ability to adapt and thrive in the face of changing circumstances has solidified its position as a major player in Colombia’s criminal landscape.